Late Monday night, the Atlanta Braves announced that they have acquired outfielder Reed Johnson, pitcher Paul Maholm and cash from the Chicago Cubs for pitchers Jaye Chapman and Arodys Vizcaino.
The deal, completed less than a day before the non-waiver trade deadline, ends the Braves' search for a right-handed bench bat and starting pitcher. The Braves still hope to acquire a bullpen arm before the 1 p.m. PST deadline.
In the trade, the Braves get two pieces that will help them contend for a playoff spot down the stretch. Reed Johnson, a 35-year-old right-handed hitting outfielder, was definitely the centerpiece of the trade for Braves general manager Frank Wren. Maholm, 30, wasn't the top-of-the-rotation starter the Braves were seeking, but will help solidify their struggling rotation.
Johnson has enjoyed a very successful season for the Cubs as their fourth outfielder. In 169 at-bats, he's compiled a .302/.355/.444 batting line, including 13-for-29 (.448) as a pinch-hitter. With the Braves, he will primarily be used against left-handers, who he is batting .313 off of since 2003, good for 6th in the MLB (min. 1200 AB). While his defense isn't as good as it used to be (-2.4 UZR/150, -1 DRS), he can play all three outfield positions and is a good option to temporarily spell Jason Heyward, Michael Bourn and Martin Prado. Johnson is a free agent at the end of the season.
Maholm, who was never rumored to be on the Braves' radar, is one of the hottest pitchers in the MLB. In his last 10 starts, he is 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA, including 45 strikeouts and 14 walks in 60.1 innings pitched. Overall, he has a 3.74 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 49.9 percent ground ball rate in 120.1 innings pitched. Since 2006, he ranks 17th among MLB pitchers with a 0.84 HR/9 (min. 1000 IP). Maholm has posted four consecutive seasons of 2.0 WAR or greater, and is on pace for a fifth. His contract includes a $6.5 million club option for 2013, including a $500,000 buyout. He will take the rotation spot of the struggling Jair Jurrjens.
Vizcaino, 21, entered the season as the Braves' third-best prospect according to MLB.com, and the 40th best prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America. He has missed the entire season due to Tommy John surgery, but had a 4.67 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 17.1 relief innings last season. He is viewed as a dominant back-end-of-the-bullpen reliever with the potential to start. The success of four members of the Class A Advanced Lynchburg Hillcats, Gus Schlosser, Aaron Northcraft, J.R. Graham and Cody Martin, made Vizcaino expendable.
Chapman, 25, was not ranked among the Braves' best prospects heading into the season, but was on their 40-man roster. He has a 3.52 ERA with a 10.1 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 53.2 innings for Triple-A Gwinnett. He is viewed as a potential back-end reliever.
Johnson will join the Braves in Atlanta tomorrow, while Maholm will join the team on Tuesday.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Sunday, July 29, 2012
Predicting the Braves' Deadline Deals
Despite being interested in the top available starting pitchers on the trade market, the Atlanta Braves have yet to complete a deal. At the top of their list was Milwaukee Brewers ace Zack Grienke, who has since been traded to the Los Angeles Angels. The Braves have also been connected to Chicago Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster, Tampa Bay Rays pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis and Florida Marlins pitcher Josh Johnson.
However, the asking prices for Shields and Johnson may be too high for the Braves, Dempster has already vetoed a trade to the Braves and Davis hasn't started a game since Sept. 25, 2011. The Braves have to get creative if they want to acquire a pitcher before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
Here are two scenarios that the Braves might pursue as they approach deadline day:
Scenario One
Chicago Cubs trade pitcher Ryan Dempster and outfielder Reed Johnson to the Atlanta Braves for pitchers Zeke Spruill and Navery Moore and catcher/oufielder Evan Gattis.
Braves general manager Frank Wren has certainly made it clear that Dempster is his main trade deadline target. Along with Cubs president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, Wren already completed a deal that would have sent pitcher Randall Delgado to the Cubs, but Dempster vetoed it using his 10-and-five rights citing that he would rather play for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Epstein and Hoyer have since tried to work out a deal with Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti, but the Dodgers seem more interested in trading for teammate Matt Garza. While it's easy to question Dempster's desire to play for the Braves after he vetoed the trade, he has said from the beginning that he wants to play in Atlanta.
If a deal does get done, it likely won't be identical to the one that two teams agreed on last week as Wren would rather not include Delgado in a trade for a two-month rental. Also looking for a bench bat, Wren might be able to get the Cubs to include the right-handed hitting Johnson, who can play all three outfield positions. While his defense is below-average (-6.8 UZR/150), entering Sunday he has an .809 OPS in 166 at-bats. The acquisition of Johnson would be able to offset the injury of Matt Diaz, as the two have similar production.
Instead of Delgado, the Braves could include Gattis, Spruill and Moore. Gattis, 25, is enjoying a monster season in the minors, hitting .349 with 13 home runs and 44 RBI in 41 games split across three levels. Due to his age, the Braves might be inclined to sell high on the catcher-turned-outfielder. Spruill, 22, does not get as much publicity as Julio Teheran, Delgado, Mike Minor and Arodys Vizcaino, but is ranked as the seventh-best prospect in the Braves' system by MLB.com. He is 7-10 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 21 starts at Double-A Mississippi. Moore, 21, is 6-3 with a 4.20 ERA in 19 games (11 starts) for the Class-A Rome Braves. He is ranked by MLB.com as the Braves' 16th-best prospect.
Scenario Two
New York Mets trade outfielder Scott Hairston to the Atlanta Braves for a player to be named later or cash considerations.
With the Mets fading out of the playoff picture, it seems very likely that they will deal Hairston. Entering Sunday, the 32-year-old has posted a .258/.299/.511 slash line in 221 at-bats. He would be a perfect complement to Eric Hinkse, as Hairston bats right-handed and has posted a .308/.341/.617 slash line against left-handed pitchers. The Mets likely won't demand much more than a mid-level prospect for Hairston, as he is eligible to become a free agent at the end of the season.
Chicago White Sox trade pitcher Gavin Floyd to the Atlanta Braves for pitcher Jair Jurrjens and shortstop Tyler Pastornicky.
Both Jurrjens and Floyd have very little trade value, as the two have struggled this season. Just like the Jeff Francouer-for-Ryan Church swap in 2009, this would be a perfect change-of-scenery trade. Jurrjens has struggled one year after earning an All-Star selection, as he was recently moved to the bullpen in favor of Kris Medlen. However, Jurrjens is still only 26 and has one arbitration-eligible season remaining. Floyd, on the other hand, is 29 and has labored through and injury-plagued season. The White Sox have been trying to move Floyd for a while, and made that even more clear after acquiring Francisco Liriano from the Minnesota Twins. Floyd has a team option of $9.5 million for next season, but can be non-tendered after the season.
In Pastornicky, the White Sox would get the utility infielder that they need after trading Eduardo Escobar to the Twins in the Liriano deal. While he hasn't completely fallen out of favor in Atlanta, Andrelton Simmons seems like the better option at shortstop for the Braves moving forward. While Floyd isn't the top-of-the-rotation starter that the Braves are seeking, he would provide another quality starting pitcher for the Braves down the stretch. He might also be a better option than Medlen, who hasn't started since Aug. 4, 2010.
While it is impossible to know the outcome of the always-unpredictable trade deadline, it's fun to try and speculate what Frank Wren and his staff will do as the deadline approaches. And with the Braves just four games back of the Washington Nationals entering Sunday, here's to hoping the Braves receive reinforcements heading into the final two months of the season.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
15 Players to Watch on Deadline Day
With the Trade Deadline just four days away, here are 15 players that may find themselves in an Atlanta Braves uniform on August 1 (listed in alphabetical order):
- Josh Beckett, P, Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have made it clear that they are going to shop around the three-time All-Star. The Braves might be the perfect place to resurrect a career that once showed a lot of promise. Beckett has won 15 or more games four times, along with a 13-7 record in 2011. He is disliked among Red Sox nation and might be in need of a change of scenery. Despite being just 5-9 with a 4.57 ERA this season, he has posted a strong 2.5 WAR, 0.75 HR/9 and 2.41 BB/9 in those 17 starts. Frank Wren should keep Beckett's name in the back of his head as the deadline approaches.
- Matt Capps, P, Minnesota Twins: This year's market for relief pitchers is extremely thin. Capps, along with Kansas City Royals closer Jonathan Broxton, are the best right-handed relievers available. Currently on the disabled list, Capps is a veteran who can help shore up the back-end of the Braves' bullpen. If the Braves were to make a deal, they will likely try to pry outfielder Josh Willingham away from the Twins along with him. However, the asking price will be steep, and the Braves need to use their prospects on starting pitching first.
- Rajai Davis, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Davis may end up being the most realistic bench option for the Braves as they approach the deadline. The 31-year-old outfielder has batted .255 with five home runs and 25 stolen bases in 82 games for the Blue Jays while playing all three outfield positions. His .719 OPS and 4.7 UZR/150 make him an attractive piece to be used as a defensive replacement and pinch runner.
- Ryan Dempster, P, Chicago Cubs: Dempster has already vetoed one trade to the Braves and has publicly stated that he would rather play for the Dodgers. However, if Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are unable to work out a deal with the Dodgers, they already have the framework for a deal with the Braves. Dempster has a 2.25 ERA, good for second in the MLB, while averaging 6.5 innings per start.
- Jeff Francouer, OF, Kansas City Royals: While Francouer and the Braves are likely not on good terms since his departure in 2009, he would be a solid offensive bat off the bench. Francouer is batting .242 with 9 home runs and 30 RBI for the Royals and has one year remaining on a three-year, $16 million contract. He hit 78 home runs over parts of five seasons for the Braves and is from the Atlanta area.
- Zack Greinke, P, Milwaukee Brewers: After the Dempster deal fell through, Greinke was immediately catapulted to the top of the Braves' wish list. While the Braves have the prospects to acquire Greinke, they want to make sure that they will have him as more than a two-month rental. A sign-and-trade for Greinke might spell the end of the Michael Bourn and Brian McCann eras in Atlanta, but would provide the Braves with an ace for years to come.
- Corey Hart, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: Hart has been on the Braves' radar ever since his name began surfacing in trade rumors a few years ago. The 30-year-old has 17 home runs and 24 doubles in 96 games for the Brewers. He would provide the Braves with a right-handed power bat with above-average speed who can play first base and right field. He is under team control through 2013, and could be a potential starter next season if Bourn decides to sign elsewhere.
- Felix Hernandez, P, Seattle Mariners: While it is highly unlikely that Hernandez gets dealt, the Braves could mortgage their future to acquire one of the game's best pitchers. Hernandez already has 96 wins at age 26 and is signed through 2014. He would be perennial 20 win pitcher if he had a better offense, so it wouldn't be too surprising if the Braves at least called and made an offer. A similar package to the one that Frank Wren used to acquire Mark Teixeira might still not be enough to acquire "King Felix."
- Josh Johnson, P, Miami Marlins: The Marlins are definitely poised to sell, as they have already unloaded Omar Infante, Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez to contenders. A deal for Johnson is highly unlikely because of the large return requested, as well as the Marlins' unwillingness to make a division rival better. However, Johnson is attractive because he is signed through 2013, and has shown the potential to be an ace when healthy.
- Reed Johnson, OF, Chicago Cubs: Johnson would be a good replacement for the injured Matt Diaz off the bench. He is batting .305 with an .807 OPS in 164 at-bats for the Cubs, while playing all three outfield positions. He likely wouldn't cost much and would be a right-handed complement for Eric Hinske. If the asking price for other outfielders is too high, there is a good chance that Johnson finds himself in a Braves uniform by next month.
- Jon Lester, P, Boston Red Sox: While all indications are that he is not available, the Braves might have enough in terms of prospects to pry him away from the Red Sox. The 28-year-old is just 5-8 with a 5.46 ERA this season, but has averaged 14 wins per season since 2008 and is under team control through 2013 (including a team option for 2014). The Red Sox are in last place in the AL East with a 49-50 record, so they might become sellers at the deadline.
- Francisco Liriano, P, Minnesota Twins: Liriano is not on the Braves short-list of targets, but if they became desperate, he is considerably cheaper than other options. There isn't much to like about the 28-year-old except his 24.8 percent strikeout rate. He's had a history of injuries, is inconsistent and can be non-tendered at the end of the season. The only way that Liriano joins the Braves is if they are unable to complete a deal for one of the higher-rated pitchers.
- Kevin Millwood, P, Seattle Mariners: Another former Brave, Millwood is a cheap starting option for the Braves. At 37 years old, he would not fit into their long-term plans, but would be a potential option to serve as a long reliever and spot-starter down the stretch. He is 3-8 with a 4.13 ERA in 19 starts, but that includes a 0.50 HR/9 and 2.00 K/BB ratio. If he isn't acquired at the deadline, the Braves may look to trade for him via waivers during the month of August.
- James Shields, P, Tampa Bay Rays: If a team is willing to match the Rays' high demands for Shields, it could turn out to be the biggest impact acquisition of this season. The 30-year-old has quietly been one of the most consistent pitchers in the majors since 2007, posting at least 200 innings and 10 wins in every season since then (he's on pace to do it again in this season). Shields has a team option for 2013 and 2014 for around $9 million, so he is extremely affordable. He has made over 30 starts in every season since 2007 and already has 16 career complete games (11 in 2011). For the Braves, Shields might be the consolation prize if they cannot acquire Greinke.
- Edinson Volquez, P, San Diego Padres: Volquez has quietly enjoyed a solid season after being traded from the Cincinnati Reds to the Padres. He is 6-7 with a 3.30 ERA and an impressive 8.21 K/9 in 21 starts. While his 5.12 BB/9 is high, he isn't eligible to become a free agent until 2014. However, the Padres realize that and are commanding a lot in return for Volquez. While a deal for Volquez is unlikely, the Braves will at least have discussions with the Padres about the 29-year-old right-hander.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Previewing the Trade Deadline
As the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline approaches, the trade scene has certainly been heating up as of late with the trades of Ichiro Suzuki and Hanley Ramirez. The Braves will look to make a splash at the deadline, with the hopes of acquiring pitching and bench help.
The Braves are stockpiled with talent in their farm system. Young arms such as Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Arodys Vizcaino (who is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery) and Mike Minor are appealing for teams looking for pitching prospects. If the Braves are looking to acquire a star-level pitcher, it will likely take two of the aforementioned four pitchers. Jair Jurrjens, who has struggled in his past two starts, will be dealt if the Braves can find a suitor for him. Catching prospect Christian Bethancourt might be moved, assuming the Braves plan to extend Brian McCann's contract past its' 2013 expiration date. Assuming (and hoping) shortstop Andrelton Simmons is untouchable, the Braves trade value lies in the pitching.
The Braves have been scouring for a starting pitcher, and actually had a deal in place to acquire Chicago Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster before he used his no-trade rights to veto it. Zack Greinke of the Milwaukee Brewers is definitely the Braves' top target, as the Brewers are slowly falling out of contention. Greinke would likely cost Teheran and another of the pitching prospects, including Julio Teheran. The only downside to the trade would be that the Braves would want to extend Greinke, who is only signed another two months. Even if the Braves don't trade for the 2009 Cy Young Winner, they will likely pursue him in the offseason. The Braves may also look to acquire Tampa Bay Rays pitcher James Shields, who is in the midst of a down year. Despite this, a pennant race and a change of scenery could change Shields' fortunes. While Shields isn't known as an ace, he has recorded over 10 wins and 200 innings every season since 2007. Another benefit for the Braves is he is only due to make an affordable $9 million next season, along with a team option for the 2013 and 2014 seasons. If he doesn't perform well, the Braves would have the option to buy him out. Miami Marlins ace Josh Johnson is another target, but his injury history should serve as a caution to the Braves' front office.
The Braves will also be in the market for a bullpen arm and bench help. With the exception of Craig Kimbrel, the bullpen has not been as good as in years past. Due to the poor starting pitching, they have been overworked and could use another reliever to eat up innings. As far as offensive help, the Braves are likely going to look for a bench replacement for Matt Diaz, who might be out for the season with a thumb injury. The Braves don't have the space in their lineup for an every day bat, so a utility or role player is feasible and won't cost much. The Braves will likely pursue a big bat in the offseason, once they decide what to do with their expiring contracts.
While Frank Wren and the Braves have a lot of work to do in the next week, it's fun to speculate on possible fits to join the team in the stretch run. And hopefully those acquisitions will help lead the Braves into a playoff spot and beyond.
The Braves are stockpiled with talent in their farm system. Young arms such as Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Arodys Vizcaino (who is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery) and Mike Minor are appealing for teams looking for pitching prospects. If the Braves are looking to acquire a star-level pitcher, it will likely take two of the aforementioned four pitchers. Jair Jurrjens, who has struggled in his past two starts, will be dealt if the Braves can find a suitor for him. Catching prospect Christian Bethancourt might be moved, assuming the Braves plan to extend Brian McCann's contract past its' 2013 expiration date. Assuming (and hoping) shortstop Andrelton Simmons is untouchable, the Braves trade value lies in the pitching.
The Braves have been scouring for a starting pitcher, and actually had a deal in place to acquire Chicago Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster before he used his no-trade rights to veto it. Zack Greinke of the Milwaukee Brewers is definitely the Braves' top target, as the Brewers are slowly falling out of contention. Greinke would likely cost Teheran and another of the pitching prospects, including Julio Teheran. The only downside to the trade would be that the Braves would want to extend Greinke, who is only signed another two months. Even if the Braves don't trade for the 2009 Cy Young Winner, they will likely pursue him in the offseason. The Braves may also look to acquire Tampa Bay Rays pitcher James Shields, who is in the midst of a down year. Despite this, a pennant race and a change of scenery could change Shields' fortunes. While Shields isn't known as an ace, he has recorded over 10 wins and 200 innings every season since 2007. Another benefit for the Braves is he is only due to make an affordable $9 million next season, along with a team option for the 2013 and 2014 seasons. If he doesn't perform well, the Braves would have the option to buy him out. Miami Marlins ace Josh Johnson is another target, but his injury history should serve as a caution to the Braves' front office.
The Braves will also be in the market for a bullpen arm and bench help. With the exception of Craig Kimbrel, the bullpen has not been as good as in years past. Due to the poor starting pitching, they have been overworked and could use another reliever to eat up innings. As far as offensive help, the Braves are likely going to look for a bench replacement for Matt Diaz, who might be out for the season with a thumb injury. The Braves don't have the space in their lineup for an every day bat, so a utility or role player is feasible and won't cost much. The Braves will likely pursue a big bat in the offseason, once they decide what to do with their expiring contracts.
While Frank Wren and the Braves have a lot of work to do in the next week, it's fun to speculate on possible fits to join the team in the stretch run. And hopefully those acquisitions will help lead the Braves into a playoff spot and beyond.
Monday, July 23, 2012
Braves Have a Case of the Mondays
Ninety-five games into the season, the Atlanta Braves still can't seem to shake Monday woes. Their 0-11 record on Mondays is by-far worst in the MLB, and a stark contrast to their 52-31 record on the other six days.
Here are some of the Braves' statistics on Mondays:
- The Braves' offense has combined to hit .190 as a team (30th in the MLB), with a .243 on-base percentage (30th in the MLB) and a .270 slugging percentage (30th in the MLB)
- They have hit 5 home runs (29th in the MLB)
- They have scored 17 runs (30th in the MLB)
- They've struck out 97 times (3rd most in the MLB)
- Braves pitchers have combined for a 5.55 ERA (29th in the MLB)
- They have given up 18 home runs (2nd most in the MLB)
Here are some of the Braves' individual statistics on Mondays:
- Catcher Brian McCann 2-for-35 (.057) with one RBI in 10 games
- First baseman Freddie Freeman is 4-for-29 (.138) with one home run and two RBI in eight games
- Third baseman Chipper Jones, second baseman Dan Uggla, outfielder Jason Heyward and outfielder Michael Bourn have combined for three RBI
- Outfielder Eric Hinkse leads the team with a .313 batting average (5-for-16) (min. 15 at-bats)
- Outfielder Martin Prado and third baseman Juan Francisco lead the team with 3 RBI each
- Bourn leads the team with five stolen bases and two triples in 11 games
- Cristhian Martinez is the only active Braves pitcher to not give up a run on Mondays (min. one appearance)
- Pitcher Tommy Hanson is 0-4 with a 6.17 ERA in four starts
- Chad Durbin has a 8.10 ERA in a team-high eight apperances
The Braves will look to snap their Monday skid against the Miami Marlins at 4:05 p.m. PST. Mike Minor, who is 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA in three Monday starts (5-6, 5.69 ERA overall) will face Josh Johnson (5-7, 4.35 ERA) in the series opener.
Sunday, July 22, 2012
Week in Review
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| Photo Credit: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images |
It was a week of highs and lows for the Atlanta Braves. After going undefeated last week, they saw their seven-game winning-streak come to an end against the San Francisco Giants. The Braves lost the first two games of the series 9-0 and 9-4 (in 11 innings), salvaging the last game with a 3-2 victory.
The weekend series saw the Braves square off against the Washington Nationals four times in three days. Friday brought one of the most historic comebacks in recent memory, as the Braves erased a nine-run deficit to come back and win 11-10 in eleven innings. (You can read more about the game here). The two teams split the double-header, with the Braves winning Saturday's first game 4-0 and losing the second game 5-2. The Nationals evened the series with a 9-2 victory on Sunday.
At the end of the week, the Braves sit just 3.5 games behind the Nationals, but no doubt gained some confidence and swagger from Friday's comeback. In this upcoming week, Atlanta travels to Miami for a three game series against the Marlins. After a day off, they return home to face the Philadelphia Phillies for three games over the weekend.
Notes/Transactions: Jair Jurrjens continued to struggle and his roster spot could be in jeopardy...Brian McCann looks like hes turned the corner with a .286/.375/.762 slash line in his last seven games...Chipper Jones now holds the career RBI record for people who primarily played third base (1601 RBI and counting)....Matt Diaz was placed on the 15-day DL with a right thumb injury....Randall Delgado was called up from Triple-A to start Saturday's second game, only to be demoted the next day
Stat of the Week: The Braves are 0-11 on Mondays this year. On Mondays, Atlanta's ERA is 5.55, good for last in the NL. It doesnt end there though, as the Braves' Monday batting average is a meager .190. Not only is that last in the majors but it's also 67 points lower than the Braves' overall batting average. The Braves will look to end that run tomorrow, as Mike Minor takes the mound against Josh Johnson at 4:05 p.m. PST.
Friday, July 20, 2012
The Anatomy of a Comeback
On Friday, the Atlanta Braves completed one of the largest comebacks in their history, erasing a 9-run deficit to defeat the Washington Nationals 11-10 in 11 innings. The win pushed the Braves one game closer to the Nationals, leaving them only 2.5 games back of first place.
Here are some interesting facts from tonight's game:
- Staring pitcher Tommy Hanson went four plus innings, giving up eight runs on eight hits (two homeruns), while walking four and striking out five. The Braves bullpen went seven innings, giving up two runs on seven hits, while walking two and striking out five.
- Chipper Jones recorded two RBI, giving him 1,598 RBI for his career. Those two RBI broke a tie between Jones and George Brett atop the list for most career RBI by a third baseman.
- Dan Uggla went 3-for-4 with two walks and four runs scored, giving him his first multi-hit game since June 5th against the Miami Marlins. He had been 12-for-111 (.108) with two home runs and nine RBI in the 34 games since then.
- Brian McCann went 2-for-6 with a home run and two RBI, extending his hitting streak to 10 games. He has gone 14-for-40 (.350) with six home runs and 15 RBI over that span.
- Freddie Freeman went 3-for-6 with an RBI, extending his hitting streak to 11 games. He has gone 18-for-42 (.429) with three home runs and nine RBI over that span.
- Craig Kimbrel blew his second save of the season and first since May 2nd against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have now come back and won both of those games.
- Until his game-winning hit, Paul Janish was 2-for-17 (including 0-for-4 with RISP) in five games with the Braves.
- After allowing two home runs in the 10th inning of Wednesday's game against the San Francisco Giants, Chad Durbin earned the save, his first of the season and first since July 20, 2009 against the Chicago Cubs.
- The Braves went 0-for-7 with RISP in the first five innings, compared to 5-for-15 in the final six innings. They are 10th in the National League with a .224 batting average with RISP.
- The Braves have now won nine of their last 11 games and seven straight against teams from the NL East. They have outscored their opponents 57-34 in the nine victories, while they have been outscored 18-4 in the two losses.
- Both the Braves and Nationals used 19 of their 25 available players. The only members of the Braves to not play were outfielder Matt Diaz, reliever Anthony Varvaro and their other four starting pitchers.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Breaking Down the Braves MVP Race
It has been a season of up and downs so far for the Atlanta Braves. Despite possessing one of the worst starting rotations in the MLB, they have won eight out of 10 overall, placing them in National League's second wildcard spot. After the completion of Thursdays' games, the Braves are 50-41 and just 3.5 games back of the Washington Nationals in the NL East. In order to make up for a weak rotation, the Braves have received a lot of strong individual contributions on offense, defense and in the bullpen.
Here is a list of candidates for the Braves' MVP so far:
Michael Bourn, OF -- Bourn has been extremely productive both offensively and defensively in his first full-season with the Braves. He ranks in the top-five in the NL in games played (91, T-4th), at-bats (384, 1st), runs (63, T-2nd), hits (117, 3rd) and triples (7, T-3rd). Bourn is first among MLB center fielders in UZR/150 (14.1) and DRS (10). Bourn's 4.1 WAR is eighth in the MLB and second among center fielders.
Chipper Jones, 3B -- The 40-year-old Jones is quietly putting together one of the best seasons in MLB history for his age. Among third basemen over the age of 40, he is in the top-five in WAR (2.3, 4th), average (.313, 3rd), on-base percentage (.387, 2nd), slugging percentage (.495, 1st), isolated power (.182, 1st) and BABIP (.317, T-3rd). His offensive production has not come with a defensive let down. So far this season, he ranks third in UZR/150 (18.0) and DRS (8) among third baseman with at least 400 innings.
Craig Kimbrel, P -- The reigning NL Rookie of the Year has been absolutely dominant this season. In 37 innings, Kimbrel has a 1.22 ERA and 0.68 WHIP, while racking up 63 strikeouts and only 10 walks. Among MLB relievers, Kimbrel ranks second in WAR (2.0), second in K/9 (15.32) and first in saves (28). In 29 save opportunities, Kimbrel has given up 3 runs and 11 hits in 29 innings, while striking out 54 and walking 7.
Martin Prado, OF -- Prado has been Mr. Everything for the Braves this season, starting games at five different positions, while providing offensive production from the two-hole. Prado ranks in the top-10 in the NL in batting average (.309, 10th), doubles (24, T-7th), hits (108, 6th) and at-bats (350, T-10th). As of Thursday, he ranks second among left fielders in UZR/150 (18.8) and DRS (8). His 3.6 WAR is fourth among left fielders and fifteenth overall.
Who do you think has been the Braves' MVP so far this season?
Here is a list of candidates for the Braves' MVP so far:
Michael Bourn, OF -- Bourn has been extremely productive both offensively and defensively in his first full-season with the Braves. He ranks in the top-five in the NL in games played (91, T-4th), at-bats (384, 1st), runs (63, T-2nd), hits (117, 3rd) and triples (7, T-3rd). Bourn is first among MLB center fielders in UZR/150 (14.1) and DRS (10). Bourn's 4.1 WAR is eighth in the MLB and second among center fielders.
Chipper Jones, 3B -- The 40-year-old Jones is quietly putting together one of the best seasons in MLB history for his age. Among third basemen over the age of 40, he is in the top-five in WAR (2.3, 4th), average (.313, 3rd), on-base percentage (.387, 2nd), slugging percentage (.495, 1st), isolated power (.182, 1st) and BABIP (.317, T-3rd). His offensive production has not come with a defensive let down. So far this season, he ranks third in UZR/150 (18.0) and DRS (8) among third baseman with at least 400 innings.
Craig Kimbrel, P -- The reigning NL Rookie of the Year has been absolutely dominant this season. In 37 innings, Kimbrel has a 1.22 ERA and 0.68 WHIP, while racking up 63 strikeouts and only 10 walks. Among MLB relievers, Kimbrel ranks second in WAR (2.0), second in K/9 (15.32) and first in saves (28). In 29 save opportunities, Kimbrel has given up 3 runs and 11 hits in 29 innings, while striking out 54 and walking 7.
Martin Prado, OF -- Prado has been Mr. Everything for the Braves this season, starting games at five different positions, while providing offensive production from the two-hole. Prado ranks in the top-10 in the NL in batting average (.309, 10th), doubles (24, T-7th), hits (108, 6th) and at-bats (350, T-10th). As of Thursday, he ranks second among left fielders in UZR/150 (18.8) and DRS (8). His 3.6 WAR is fourth among left fielders and fifteenth overall.
Who do you think has been the Braves' MVP so far this season?
Monday, July 16, 2012
The Reemergence of Jair Jurrjens
Heading into the season, the Braves' only concern about Jair Jurrjens was whether or not his surgically repaired right knee would hold up enough to last him the entire season. He was coming off a season where he went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA, earning his first All-Star appearance.
At the time of his demotion, the Braves' front office felt that Jurrjens struggles were tied to a decrease in velocity from last season. However, his fastball (88.8 mph), changeup (82.3 mph) and slider (78.1 mph) velocities since he was recalled are almost identical to what they were before (88.4 mph, 82.5 mph, 77.7 mph, respectively).
However, just four starts into the season it became apparent that Jurrjens' injury was the least of his concerns. During April, Jurrjens went 0-2 with a 9.37 ERA in 16.1 IP. That included a .411 batting average against, 2.45 WHIP and more walks (10) than strikeouts (8).
In four starts since then, Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in 25.1 IP. He has held opponents to a .245 batting average against, 1.14 WHIP with 10 strikeouts and 5 walks.
While his demotion did not yield immediate results (he was 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA at Triple-A Gwinnett), the Braves needed a veteran starter to take the place of Brandon Beachy, whose season ended when it was determined he needed Tommy John Surgery. So after 10 minor league starts, Jurrjens was back in the major leagues.
In four starts since then, Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in 25.1 IP. He has held opponents to a .245 batting average against, 1.14 WHIP with 10 strikeouts and 5 walks.
At the time of his demotion, the Braves' front office felt that Jurrjens struggles were tied to a decrease in velocity from last season. However, his fastball (88.8 mph), changeup (82.3 mph) and slider (78.1 mph) velocities since he was recalled are almost identical to what they were before (88.4 mph, 82.5 mph, 77.7 mph, respectively).
This means that Jurrjens' lack of success was as a result of something else, like poor pitch location. His pitch location can be expressed in the following graphs (from Fangraphs.com):
Jair Jurrjens 4/23/12 against the Los Angeles Dodgers (Loss): 3 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Jair Jurrjens 6/22/12 against the Boston Red Sox (Win): 7.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Against the Dodgers, Jurrjens left too many fastballs and changeups down the middle of the plate, while missing out of the strike zone with the majority of his sliders. Against the Red Sox, Jurrjens threw his fastballs and changeups on the inner-half the strike zone, while keeping his sliders in the strike zone.
Because Jurrjens does not possess the stuff to make hitters miss, he needs to be smart about the placement of his pitches. If last season is any indication, he has the ability to do that over the course of an entire season.
Only time will tell if he is able to keep up this success, but if he does so, he will be a integral part of the Braves' rotation down the stretch.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Week in Review
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| Photo Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images |
During the series, shortstop Jack Wilson dislocated his right pinky finger, landing him on the 15-day disabled list. To fill the void created by his and Andrelton Simmons’ injuries, the Braves acquired shortstop Paul Janish from the Cincinnati Reds for minor league pitcher Todd Redmond. Janish’s glove should help solidify the shortstop position until Simmons returns.
On Sunday, Braves pitcher Ben Sheets pitched six innings in his first MLB start since July 19, 2010. While one start doesn’t mean much, his performance was a positive sign for the Braves’ struggling rotation and a great beginning to his Braves career.
With a 49-39 record, the Braves sit only three games behind the Washington Nationals. If the Braves can buckle down in the latter portion of the season and play consistently, the division is definitely in sight.
In the upcoming week, the Braves square off at home against the San Francisco Giants, and then play the Nationals in a four game weekend series. There is a doubleheader on Saturday.
Stat of the Week: Chipper Jones collected career RBI number 1,595 over the weekend, tying him with Mike Schmidt for second-most all-time by a third baseman. Jones now sits only one behind George Brett, who had 1,596 RBI during his career. Look for him to once again make history sometime this week.
Braves Acquire Janish
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| Braves SS Paul Janish (Photo Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) |
While the 29-year-old Janish has not appeared in the major leagues this season, he was a key member of the Reds from 2008-2011. During those four seasons, he played 283 games at shortstop (206 starts), 21 games at third base (12 starts), 12 games at second base (eight starts) and pitched two innings.
In the 1956.1 innings at shortstop, Janish had a .981 fielding percentage, committing only 20 errors. Among shortstops with at least 1500 innings played, Janish ranked second in the MLB in UZR/150 (11.3), ninth in DRS (20) and 16th in TZL (6.9).
However, Janish's strong defensive work overshadowed his poor offensive performance during those four seasons. He has a below average .221/.289/.302 slash line in 975 career plate appearances.
Janish has shown the potential of being an above-average MLB player. In 2009 and 2010, he posted WARs of 1.0 and 1.1, respectively. While these numbers didn't place among the leaders at shortstop, they showed that he can be a good utility guy off the Braves' bench. If he posts a positive WAR, he will already be doing better than Jack Wilson and Tyler Pastornicky, who have combined to post a -1.9 WAR.
As Braves fans, we can only hope that Janish solidifies the shortstop position until Andrelton Simmons returns.
We can also hope that this is the first of many positive moves for Frank Wren as we approach the July 31 Trade Deadline.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
The Ben Sheets Experiment
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| Braves P Ben Sheets (Photo Credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) |
While Sheets wasn't number one on the Braves' deadline wish-list, he has the potential to be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. He will likely take the spot of Randall Delgado, who has walked three or more batters in nine of his last 12 starts. The Braves need a guy who can consistently throw strikes, which is why Sheets might be perfect for this role.
In two starts for Double-A Mississippi, Sheets went 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in 10.2 innings pitched. While the ERA isn't encouraging, he struck out 10 batters in those innings, while only walking one. This is not out of the ordinary for Sheets, who has a career K/9 of 7.50 and BB/9 of 2.07.
The biggest benefit of the deal is it's low-risk nature. Sheets was signed to a minor-league contract, meaning the Braves didn't have to give anything up to acquire him. If he struggles, the Braves can look to acquire someone else, or bring up Julio Teheran or Todd Redmond from Triple-A Gwinnett.
Only time will tell if Sheets emerges as a key member of the Braves' rotation. If he begins to pitch well and the Braves acquire a front-end starter, they will be a force to be reckoned with down the stretch.
Friday, July 13, 2012
Making the Case for Brendan Ryan
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| Seattle Mariners SS Brendan Ryan (Photo Credit: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) |
With Andrelton Simmons heading to the disabled list for over a month, the Braves are facing a tough decision at shortstop. Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez has indicated that he will make a roster move before Friday's game against the New York Mets. However, as of 12 p.m. PST, the Braves had yet to announce anything.
If the Braves were to stick with what they have now, they'd be stuck with Jack Wilson for at least the time being. Among 55 MLB shortstops with at least 50 plate appearances, Wilson is second-to-last in average (.174), last in on-base percentage (.194) and fourth-to-last in slugging percentage (.217). Among the 43 shortstops with at-least 140 innings played, he is eighth-to-last in UZR/150 (-14.5).
If the Braves were to stick with what they have now, they'd be stuck with Jack Wilson for at least the time being. Among 55 MLB shortstops with at least 50 plate appearances, Wilson is second-to-last in average (.174), last in on-base percentage (.194) and fourth-to-last in slugging percentage (.217). Among the 43 shortstops with at-least 140 innings played, he is eighth-to-last in UZR/150 (-14.5).
With the game just a few hours away, the Braves will likely bring up Josh Wilson from Triple-A Gwinnett. Tyler Pastornicky, who started the season as the Braves shortstop, has not improved enough defensively to play the position at the major league level. Regardless, a duo of Jack Wilson and Josh Wilson/Pastornicky likely won't be enough to keep the Braves in contention.
That's where Seattle Mariners shortstop Brendan Ryan comes in.
While his .187 average, .287 on-base percentage and .276 slugging percentage aren't encouraging, he more than makes up for it on the defensive side of the baseball. In 638.1 innings at shortstop, Ryan has a .994 fielding percentage and a 31.8 UZR/150, both tops among MLB shortstops. More impressive is despite Ryan's offensive struggles, he's still ninth among MLB shortstops with a 1.6 WAR (minimum 200 plate appearances).
If the Braves were to pull off a trade for Ryan, it likely would not take more than a mid-level prospect or cash to convince the Mariners to give him up.
That is a lot for Frank Wren and Fredi Gonzalez to consider.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
The Braves and Justin Upton
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| Diamondbacks OF Justin Upton (Photo Credit: Christian Petersen/Getty Images) |
The rumors surrounding Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton are swirling again. The 24-year-old right fielder is apparently being shopped for the third consecutive season. He has fallen out of favor in the Diamondbacks' front office as a result of inconsistent and effort and play.
Regardless of his production this season, it would be stupid of the Diamondbacks to trade Upton. He has posted the third-highest WAR amongst MLB right fielders since 2009, sitting just behind Ben Zobrist of the Tampa Bay Rays and Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays. His .367 wOBA since then places him eighth.
While it is shocking enough to consider trading the former number one overall pick, it is even more shocking to even consider the Braves as a suitor.
ESPN's Buster Olney reported that the Braves could build a package around third baseman/left fielder Martin Prado and pitching prospects. Those pitching prospects would likely include two out of a mixture of Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Mike Minor.
Making a splash like this would not only create problems for the Braves in the short-term, but also in the long-term.
The Braves offense is tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for the highest offensive WAR in the MLB. As a team, they are in the top-five in the NL in OPS (.732, fifth), runs (391, fourth) and RBI (372, fourth).
More specifically, Braves outfielders have combined to produce a 11.4 WAR, more than a win higher than the second-place Cardinals. The trio of Jason Heyward, Martin Prado and Michael Bourn (with help from others) have combined to hit .294 (third in the MLB), produce a .354 OBP (fourth), steal 47 bases (tied for first) and record 326 hits (sixth). On the defensive end, they have the highest rated outfield (by far) in the MLB.
It's the old "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" mantra.
In the likelihood that Bourn decides to walk after this season, an acquisition of Upton would create a second hole in next season's lineup. Prado is a possibility to replace third baseman Chipper Jones after he retires, so the Braves would need both an outfielder and third baseman if they decide to trade for Upton.
While the idea of trading for a potential superstar in Justin Upton is tempting, trade talks between the two teams should wait until the offseason. The Braves will have better knowledge of their personnel moving forward and then could focus on addressing their needs.
In the meantime, the Braves should stop focusing on acquiring a player that doesn't fit their needs, and start focusing on improving the seventh-least productive pitching staff in the MLB.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
The Curse of Jack Wilson
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| Braves SS Jack Wilson (Photo Credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) |
The 34-year-old Wilson has had a productive career for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Seattle Mariners, which included a Silver Slugger and All-Star appearance in 2004. But until last season, he had only once played for a team that finished above .500 (2009 Seattle Mariners).
Acquired by the Braves at last season's deadline, Wilson provided a -0.2 WAR and -14.2 UZR/150 in 17 games with the Braves last season. The most important stat, however, was the Braves' 4-13 record in the games Wilson played.
Despite his underwhelming performance, the Braves re-signed Wilson to serve as the backup and mentor to prospects Tyler Pastornicky and Andrelton Simmons.
And along with Wilson's return came unforeseen struggles in the Braves' rotation and bullpen, the two parts of the team that were considered their strength heading into the season.
Could this be the work of Jack Wilson? The short answer is no, but he's certainly not doing anything to offset the struggles of the Braves' pitching. As a result, it's easy to use Wilson as a scapegoat.
Wilson's .194 batting average isn't the worst of his concerns. Defense was his strong-suit heading into the season, but he has produced a -14.5 UZR/150, eighth-worst in the MLB among shortstops with at least 140 innings played. Meanwhile, his -0.7 WAR is third-worst among shortstops with at least 50 plate appearances.
If Wilson continues to provide little impact on both the offensive and defensive side of the baseball, his veteran presence alone will not be able to save his job. While it's tough to be harsh on a guy that seems to be well respected throughout baseball, it's now or never for Wilson to step up or he won't even get the chance to find out if he will play on a playoff team.
Monday, July 9, 2012
Welcome
Welcome to Tomahawk Talk, a blog where I post my thoughts and opinions on the Atlanta Braves.
My name is Justin Sayers and I'm a life-long Braves fan. Growing up in Los Angeles, I was able to follow the Braves during their incredible division-title streak with the help of TBS.
Now as a college student at the University of Arizona, my new location has not interfered with my love for the Braves.
I will try to update this blog as often as possible with my take on everything Atlanta Braves.
Thank you for your readership and I look forward to receiving feedback on my work.
Twitter: @JSayersNews
Facebook: facebook.com/TomahawkTalk
Google+: Justin Sayers (link provided under "About Me" on the right)
My name is Justin Sayers and I'm a life-long Braves fan. Growing up in Los Angeles, I was able to follow the Braves during their incredible division-title streak with the help of TBS.
Now as a college student at the University of Arizona, my new location has not interfered with my love for the Braves.
I will try to update this blog as often as possible with my take on everything Atlanta Braves.
Thank you for your readership and I look forward to receiving feedback on my work.
Twitter: @JSayersNews
Facebook: facebook.com/TomahawkTalk
Google+: Justin Sayers (link provided under "About Me" on the right)
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